China’s population declined for the third consecutive year, according to government data released on Friday, highlighting the ongoing demographic challenges faced by the world’s second most populous country. The population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, marking a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year.
This trend mirrors a broader global phenomenon, particularly in East Asia, where countries like Japan and South Korea have experienced significant drops in birth rates. Three years ago, China joined other nations with declining populations, including Japan and many Eastern European countries.
Several factors are contributing to this decline, including rising living costs, which have led young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbirth in favor of higher education and career pursuits. While life expectancy has increased, it hasn’t been enough to offset the falling birth rate. Countries like China, with limited immigration, are especially vulnerable to these trends.
Historically, China has been one of the world’s most populous nations, surviving invasions and natural disasters while maintaining a thriving population. After World War II and the rise of the Communist Party in 1949, large families became common, and the population doubled in three decades, despite the devastating effects of the Great Leap Forward. In the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution and Mao Zedong’s death, concerns about overpopulation led to the controversial “one-child policy,” which, while not law, forced women to seek government approval for childbirth, often facing severe penalties for violations.
The policy led to gender imbalances, especially in rural areas where there was a strong preference for male children. Despite efforts to end the selective abortion of girls, illegal sonogram businesses thrived, resulting in millions more boys born for every 100 girls, further exacerbating the gender gap. As of the latest report, the sex ratio stands at 104.34 men for every 100 women, though independent sources suggest the imbalance may be even higher.
More troubling for the government is the steep decline in birth rates, with China’s population experiencing its first drop in decades in 2023. The country was also overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation that same year. A rapidly aging population, shrinking workforce, and lack of consumer markets are placing immense pressure on the country’s system. Despite increased spending on military and infrastructure projects, China’s fragile social security system is under strain, with more people refusing to contribute to the underfunded pension system.
Over 20% of the population is aged 60 or older, a number expected to surpass 30% by 2035, prompting discussions about raising the official retirement age, one of the lowest globally. As schools and kindergartens face declining enrollments, some are being repurposed as care facilities for the elderly.
These developments have fueled concerns that China, the world’s second-largest economy, might “grow old before it grows rich.” While the government has introduced incentives like cash payouts and housing assistance to encourage larger families, these measures have had limited and temporary success. Meanwhile, China’s urbanization continues, with 10 million people moving to cities, bringing the urbanization rate to 67%.