Elon Musk has reiterated his concerns about global population decline, calling it one of the most pressing issues of our time. Musk reacted to a graph shared on X (formerly Twitter) by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, which projected population changes from 2018 to 2100 in major countries, including Nigeria, the U.S., Indonesia, and Pakistan, while highlighting significant demographic shifts in India and China.
Musk has frequently warned about the dangers of a “population collapse,” stressing the potential challenges it poses for the future.
Global Population Trends
Experts have long observed a global population decline, with debates centering on its pace and the countries most affected. Declining fertility rates, ageing populations, and reduced immigration are key factors driving the trend. To maintain a stable population, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is necessary. However, many nations fall below this threshold.
In England and Wales, for example, the average number of children per woman is projected to drop to 1.44 in 2023, the lowest on record, according to the Office for National Statistics. Globally, fertility rates have plummeted from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that figure today.
India and China Facing Steep Declines
A 2020 projection revealed that India and China, both with populations of around 1.5 billion in 2018, are expected to experience significant declines by 2100. India’s population is forecast to drop by nearly 400 million to just under 1.1 billion, while China’s is anticipated to fall dramatically to 731.9 million—a staggering 731 million decrease.
As a result, Nigeria is projected to become the world’s second-most populous country by the end of the century, with an estimated population of 790.1 million.
Other Countries’ Population Outlook
According to a 2020 University of Washington study, the population decline in India and China may occur faster than previously anticipated.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to remain the fourth-largest country in 2100, buoyed by positive net migration despite its low fertility rate. Similarly, Canada and Australia are projected to maintain relatively stable populations due to immigration.
In contrast, countries like Indonesia and Pakistan, currently experiencing population growth, are expected to see modest declines by 2100. However, nations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are predicted to surpass them in population by the turn of the century.